I don't understand calling him a "vile idiot" is so terrible. Vile is a subjective assessment in the eye of the beholder. Bluecalm began with a few paragraphs making the case that Taleb has pretensions of being an expert where he doesn't know what he is talking about, and that his statements are unsupported.

Calling him a crank is a more objective statement, and to me seems to impute an unknowable motive to what Taleb is doing in these types of articles. Is it an egotistical attempt to feel important, a strategy to sell books, or does he believe all the stuff he says?

What I personally find so unpleasant and objectionable about Taleb is probably unfair, but he seems to fit the archetype of an entire group of people who make loud statements that are wrong or unsupported, but take a long and nuanced discussion to explain why.

For example he seems to be terrible at economic analysis, but portrays himself as an excellent trader so he asserts that scientific study of the economy is bunk. Let's say that he really is an outlier in finance, operating with localized phenomena is different than having a comprehensive view of the economy and refining models.

I think his idea of Black Swans is incredibly useful, and it is interesting to explore the psychology of underestimating the likelihood of rare events. His contributions are less useful when he sounds like the people who say "economics is not a science", before making a bold assertion about the economy that has no rigorous models to support it. Such situations are analogous to saying meteorology is not a science when it comes to forecasting whether or not it will rain in ten days. "A science" is a field where everything is known? "A science" is not a field where models are refined through research and experimentation? The science part of meteorology is the process of understanding the mechanisms behind how air masses interact and improving models, not predicting weather at a future date when a good deal of what will determine whether or not it rains has not yet occurred.

>I don't understand calling him a "vile idiot" is so terrible.

Then you are a vile idiot.

Super helpful comment. Thanks. Definitely, the transition from calling public figures "vile idiots" to calling individual commenters on HN threads "vile idiots" is sure to produce a productive discussion.

I started this subthread by pointing out that 'bluecalm had weakened his argument by using the words "vile idiot". But 'bluecalm also made a bunch of testable and non-obvious observations in his comment; his writing had value. Whereas you just jumped in to call someone you disagreed with a name, and nothing else; your writing had no value.

Could you stop writing comments like that?

Did you really understand that comment to be addressed to the writer rather than what was written? Frankly I found it to be a rather more convincing condemnation of the phrase "vile idiot" than your own. FWIW, I don't think anyone here (nor NNT even) is a vile idiot.

>Super helpful comment. Thanks. Definitely, the transition from calling public figures "vile idiots" to calling individual commenters on HN threads "vile idiots" is sure to produce a productive discussion.

The point I wanted to make was that "vile idiot" is problematic in itself, and by my meta-use of it, I hoped the parent would obviously see why.

How calling public figures "vile idiots" is any better than calling individual HN commenters the same?

>Whereas you just jumped in to call someone you disagreed with a name, and nothing else; your writing had no value.

Did it really seem like a called him a name just for the fun of it? Wasn't the meta-context obvious?

Let's say it was worded instead: "... these are some reasons that he was wrong, and his style of argumentation leads me to feel actual antipathy toward him."

Maybe it is because "vile" doesn't sound like a very extreme word to me—almost like Daffy Duck saying "despicable". I suppose I would have had the same reaction, if instead bluecalm had denigrated him with a word that sounds more serious to me like "worthless".

>That said, even dismissing him as a 'crank' would add more substance to your argument than calling him a 'vile idiot.'

Neither "crank" or "vile idiot" would add substance to bluecalm's argument. "Vile idiot" isn't even part of the argument, it's part of the conclusion.

I disagree with bluecalm on the "vile idiot" conclusion - I think that he's either vile or an idiot. If he's really communicating how he sees the world, he's an idiot. If he's just cynically trying to come up with another Gladwell/Taleb style thesis that will catch fire with the NYT and TED crowd and bring in buckets of money, then he's vile.

Yeah a polyglot who writes classical Greek, Arabic, French, English and can do advanced statistical modeling is clearly an idiot right?

Well, it surely looks like it seeing level of argument he presents and lack of logical consistency in his writing. Even in this article he claims SD doesn't model real world as well as MAD and then as arguments ask you what would you do if you were asked to calculate... MAD, you would clearly see it's not SD :-) His latest book is worse than the article and my conclusion about him being and idiot is based mainly on it. Here is one gem from his book:

>>True, while humans self-repair, they eventually wear out (hopefully leaving their genes, books, or some other information behind—another discussion). But the phenomenon of aging is misunderstood, largely fraught with mental biases and logical flaws. We observe old people and see them age, so we associate aging with their loss of muscle mass, bone weakness, loss of mental function, taste for Frank Sinatra music, and similar degenerative effects. But these failures to self-repair come largely from maladjustment—either too few stressors or too little time for recovery between them— and maladjustment for this author is the mismatch between one’s design and the structure of the randomness of the environment (what I call more technically its “distributional or statistical properties”). What we observe in “aging” is a combination of maladjustment and senescence, and it appears that the two are separable— senescence might not be avoidable, and should not be avoided (it would contradict the logic of life, as we will see in the next chapter); maladjustment is avoidable. Much of aging comes from a misunderstanding of the effect of comfort—a disease of civilization: make life longer and longer, while people are more and more sick. In a natural environment, people die without aging—or after a very short period of aging. For instance, some markers, such as blood pressure, that tend to worsen over time for moderns do not change over the life of hunter-gatherers until the very end. And this artificial aging comes from stifling internal antifragility.

In which he claims aging is misunderstood and proposes his new theory that it comes from too few stressors or too little recovery. Then he says that "Much of aging comes from a misunderstanding of the effect of comfort - a disease of civilization". Really ? Aging comes from misunderstanding ? This is just random babbling, there is no sense in it. Reasonable people don't write or talk like this and those who do with such conviction as him are called... well, idiots.

>polyglot who writes classical Greek, Arabic, French, English and can do advanced statistical modeling is clearly an idiot right?

If he is in fact a polyglot and in fact can do advanced statistical modelling (the latter I very much doubt, the former I have no idea about) maybe he is not an idiot but some mental illness is taking a toll on him which makes him write and talk like one. The thing is there is no continuity, what he sees as arguments don't even address the point. It's just stream of words without any essence or meaning. I mean again, read the paragraph I quoted.. it's not even cherry picked. There are worse (like the one about depression or academia). The whole book is like that and article from OP just continues the trend.

He does not say aging comes from too few stressors. He says maladjustment (which is just one component of aging) is.

>>> Aging comes from misunderstanding ? This is just random babbling,

You are trying very hard to not understand. The thought is simple - comfort has side effects (think obesity, bad nutrition, lack of movement, overuse of pharmaceuticals like antibiotics or mood adjusters, etc.) which are not properly appreciated (they are starting to be, but we are still far from proper realization (understanding) of what and how much we pay for it and doing something about it). Not understanding those effects influences behaviors in such ways that people harm themselves. These effects accumulate and contribute to what is called "aging" - you can eat random junk when you are 20 and be fine, but keep doing it till you're 50 and you'll be the best client of your local healthcare facilities for the rest of your life. And so on and so forth. I won't say it is the deepest of observations - actually, it's pretty rapidly becoming a commonplace and sometimes even a fashion - but it definitely not a "random babbling".

I get an impression that you just came to a hard conclusion that Taleb literally writes nonsense and you are hard set on not allowing any sense that is contained in his writing - and can be easily seen - to get to you. Your right of course, but I personally fail to find any utility in such a behavior.

This is what I get too. I've read all his books except the technical one (Dynamic Hedging) and this conclusion of 'nonsense' about a pretty clearly written paragraph is baffling. I too read the paragraph and came to the conclusion you did. Maybe the above commenter has a hard-on for bullet points and power point presentations but Taleb has repeatedly said that he writes essays for pleasurable consumption and not business books (regardless of how the publisher markets them).

I don't see a problem with the sentence "Much of aging comes from a misunderstanding of the effect of comfort - a disease of civilization". I read it like this: people think comfort is good and healthy and prolongs life, so they seek comfort and get fragile/sick - they misunderstand the effect of comfort.

Although its unfair to nitpick one paragraph since its out of context from the rest of the chapter/book, reading the aging paragraph makes me see where you are coming from with all this.

The guy can't help himself. It's like reading a stock ticker (except its Taleb's stream of thought), flashing across with all the different thoughts that don't necessarily correlate with each other. You think there's some relevancy there but its hard to pick it out in the moment.

I will say though, Taleb reader's are surely great Words with Friends or Scrabble players. You just can't help picking up a few new words.

I don't agree with your 'vile idiot' statement but I mostly concur with your thoughts. I hope that you don't let Taleb affect your senescence.

Infact his goal is to alienate readers like the commenter above by writing in the old literary style. We are so accustomed to modern non-fiction following Malcolm Gladwell like structure for 10 year olds that we've lost the art of appreciating the meandering, scattershot expression of ideas in a literary style. In short, his filtering works.

no, it's just bad writing. meandering nonsense is never good writing, though perhaps it boosts your ego to feel like you are part of a special club (of millions) that understands his ramblings.