His safety in Ecuador seems highly dependent on the attitudes of the current ruling party/president. What happens if a more US-friendly group takes hold of power?
That would seriously harm US relations with Mercosul and other Latin American countries. The US already has a poor track record in Latin America. Invading Ecuadorian sovereignty would basically turn Latin America into yet another region with strong Anti-American attitudes like the Middle East. I'm sure Europe would also heavily condemn such an action.