A related story (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/08/Orca-How-...) observes that Obama won by about 5-700,000 votes in swing states. Given that there were 37k 'Project ORCA' volunteers in swing states, the author estimates that if each had brought only 20 additional voters to the polls the election could have gone to Romney.
Now, I think this is rather unlikely, and reminiscent of the 'Bargaining' stage in the Kubler-Ross model of the grieving process; polls last weekend in critical states like OH and FL showed strong support for Democratic senate candidates and >70% support for Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy, and the poll momentum was already headed Obama's way. Likewise, Republican voters who can't stand the President were highly motivated to go out and vote against him anyway and likely did so with or without a phone call - indeed, I heard from some Romney supporters that the campaign relied far too heavily on robo-calling in the leadup to the election, to the point that they were sick of getting reminders.
But having 37k field volunteers confused and dispirited on election day is still a disaster. It's very ironic that a campaign that was nominally against 'trickle down government' was run in such a centralized, dictatorial fashion. Psychologically, it seems like a classic case of projection - unconsciously ascribing one's own personality traits to other people in one's life. Romney's reported preference for abundant data and tight control robbed tens of thousands of his most enthusiastic supporters of their autonomy and initiative.
Obama's tipping point state was CO, which he won by almost 5 points, or somewhere in the vicinity of 80-90k votes. People will pay a lot of attention to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia (crazy that OH was closer than VA!), but Obama could have lost all three and still won.
Now, I think this is rather unlikely, and reminiscent of the 'Bargaining' stage in the Kubler-Ross model of the grieving process; polls last weekend in critical states like OH and FL showed strong support for Democratic senate candidates and >70% support for Obama's handling of Hurricane Sandy, and the poll momentum was already headed Obama's way. Likewise, Republican voters who can't stand the President were highly motivated to go out and vote against him anyway and likely did so with or without a phone call - indeed, I heard from some Romney supporters that the campaign relied far too heavily on robo-calling in the leadup to the election, to the point that they were sick of getting reminders.
But having 37k field volunteers confused and dispirited on election day is still a disaster. It's very ironic that a campaign that was nominally against 'trickle down government' was run in such a centralized, dictatorial fashion. Psychologically, it seems like a classic case of projection - unconsciously ascribing one's own personality traits to other people in one's life. Romney's reported preference for abundant data and tight control robbed tens of thousands of his most enthusiastic supporters of their autonomy and initiative.