> It's not at all obvious that this is what happens. To begin with, do you regard the average phone thief as someone who even knows what expected value is?
They know if their fence went from offering them $20/phone to offering $5/phone, it's not worth their time to steal phones any more.
> Just establish a registry for the IMEI of stolen phones so that carriers can consult the registry and refuse to provide service to stolen phones.
This seems like something that the average HNer is going to get equally riled up about as a surveillance and user freedom issue.
> They know if their fence went from offering them $20/phone to offering $5/phone, it's not worth their time to steal phones any more.
Except that phones are worth significantly more than both of those numbers or nobody would be stealing them to begin with, and they have a value floor in what they're worth if disassembled for parts which is above what many people would be willing to steal in order to get. And then we're back to, if you need X amount of money to buy drugs, and the amount of phones you have to steal to get X amount of money doubles, how many phones are they going to steal now?
> This seems like something that the average HNer is going to get equally riled up about as a surveillance and user freedom issue.
The only thing on the list is stolen phones. The phone carrier consulting the list would have your IMEI regardless. The only information anyone would get from the list is that the owner of a phone with a particular IMEI has reported it as stolen.
The main thing you need to make sure and do is to have a good way to prevent someone from reporting someone else's phone as stolen, and "make that a crime and make people who want to file a theft report show a valid ID so they can be prosecuted if they're committing that crime" is probably a pretty good way to do that.
They know if their fence went from offering them $20/phone to offering $5/phone, it's not worth their time to steal phones any more.
> Just establish a registry for the IMEI of stolen phones so that carriers can consult the registry and refuse to provide service to stolen phones.
This seems like something that the average HNer is going to get equally riled up about as a surveillance and user freedom issue.