Along the lines of predictionbook, metaculus - something that helps you be "well calibrated", but more playful/fun than metaculus.
It doesn't have a lot of upside - predictionbook actually went offline due to lack of interest. But it was a good excuse to try out some vibe coding, and learn react native (I've mostly been a backend programmer).
In an attempt to make it more engaging and fun, I decided to have it focus on sports picks. Also partly because calibration graphs need to have a lot of predictions to yield any reliable information about your calibration.
I got it up in time for March Madness and about 25 of my friends joined and it was a good time. I nagged and reminded them a lot about about 15-20 of them predicted all 63 games, by picking the winner of each match and what their percentage confidence was. I had a leaderboard and live-blogged and gave silly awards.
I later added support for multiple "tournaments" and currently have tournaments going for NBA Playoffs and NHL Playoffs, but interest is waning. Of my friends, only 2-3 others are still regularly predicting.
Maybe it'll be more fun for the NFL season but I might also let it go a bit dormant.
Biggest challenge is that there isn't really a bulletproof way to rank people if people only predict some games in a tournament. I've tried all sorts of things, minimum # of games, bayesian kernel smoothing, but it's ultimately arbitrary when choosing how to penalize someone for not participating.
If I were to continue I'd be looking at things like automatically integrating with sports apis and odds/bookmaking apis, allowing users to create their own tournaments, etc. But ultimately, the UX of the site isn't much more than making a prediction, and then checking back later when the game is over to see your score. Not much more reason to hang around on the site than that.
Along the lines of predictionbook, metaculus - something that helps you be "well calibrated", but more playful/fun than metaculus.
It doesn't have a lot of upside - predictionbook actually went offline due to lack of interest. But it was a good excuse to try out some vibe coding, and learn react native (I've mostly been a backend programmer).
In an attempt to make it more engaging and fun, I decided to have it focus on sports picks. Also partly because calibration graphs need to have a lot of predictions to yield any reliable information about your calibration.
I got it up in time for March Madness and about 25 of my friends joined and it was a good time. I nagged and reminded them a lot about about 15-20 of them predicted all 63 games, by picking the winner of each match and what their percentage confidence was. I had a leaderboard and live-blogged and gave silly awards.
I later added support for multiple "tournaments" and currently have tournaments going for NBA Playoffs and NHL Playoffs, but interest is waning. Of my friends, only 2-3 others are still regularly predicting.
Maybe it'll be more fun for the NFL season but I might also let it go a bit dormant.
Biggest challenge is that there isn't really a bulletproof way to rank people if people only predict some games in a tournament. I've tried all sorts of things, minimum # of games, bayesian kernel smoothing, but it's ultimately arbitrary when choosing how to penalize someone for not participating.
If I were to continue I'd be looking at things like automatically integrating with sports apis and odds/bookmaking apis, allowing users to create their own tournaments, etc. But ultimately, the UX of the site isn't much more than making a prediction, and then checking back later when the game is over to see your score. Not much more reason to hang around on the site than that.