He doesn't take the point about robot horses very far, but that's where the conversation will go in time.
Maybe flight is a better example. We always knew it was possible to fly because we saw birds doing it. Birds fly by flapping their wings. We tried to make flying machines that flap their wings. They didn't fly.
Birds evolved to flap their wings because it exploited the technology available to evolution. Birds are made out of the same stuff as other animals, just tweaked a bit to be lighter. Flapping is a lot like running or swimming physiologically -- swinging a limb back and forth in a certain pattern. Evolution can do a lot with warm-blooded animals with limbs.
When we figured out how to make artificial flying machines, the solution exploited the advantages of our technology. Planes are made out of the same stuff as cars, just tweaked a bit to be lighter. Spinning a propeller is a lot like spinning a wheel. We can do a lot with combustion engines that spin things.
The missing pieces were the principles of aerodynamics, some technology (IC engine, construction materials), and some engineering specific to the problem of flight. Since we figured it out, we're able to make machines that fly faster and higher than anything in nature. Vastly faster and higher.
Right now we're trying to build machines that think -- not just compute. We know that thinking is possible because we see brains doing it. Brains do it with neurons and synapses. We tried to make thinking machines out of neurons and synapses. They didn't think.
Brains are made of neurons because that's what evolution had available. Neurons are a lot like other cells in the body -- blood cells, skin cells, muscle cells. Evolution is good at specializing cells to do all kinds of jobs.
When we figure out how to make thinking machines, the solution will exploit the advantages of the technology of the day. It will look like something we already have, but tweaked. We're good with transistors and silicon. We're good at computer networks.
We definitely have missing pieces. We don't know much about the principles of intelligence. We understand logic, but how do you get intelligence from logic? And maybe we're still missing some key technology to make it work. (Memristors? Graphene?) And once we have the principles and the technology, it'll take some engineering to make it work, but we'll make it work. We'll building thinking machines that are vastly smarter, wiser, and more clever than nature ever did.
The point is that if we ever upload a brain, it will be like building a mechanical horse -- an over-engineered gimmick, a parlor trick. We'll already have done much better at AI by approaching the problem from a different direction.
It doesn't bode well for humanity though, in the long term. Just about the only jobs left are thinking jobs. What happens when it's a waste of time for a human to think, just like it's a waste of time for a horse to pull a plow? We didn't declare war on horses, Terminator-style. We just didn't keep very many around.
Maybe flight is a better example. We always knew it was possible to fly because we saw birds doing it. Birds fly by flapping their wings. We tried to make flying machines that flap their wings. They didn't fly.
Birds evolved to flap their wings because it exploited the technology available to evolution. Birds are made out of the same stuff as other animals, just tweaked a bit to be lighter. Flapping is a lot like running or swimming physiologically -- swinging a limb back and forth in a certain pattern. Evolution can do a lot with warm-blooded animals with limbs.
When we figured out how to make artificial flying machines, the solution exploited the advantages of our technology. Planes are made out of the same stuff as cars, just tweaked a bit to be lighter. Spinning a propeller is a lot like spinning a wheel. We can do a lot with combustion engines that spin things.
The missing pieces were the principles of aerodynamics, some technology (IC engine, construction materials), and some engineering specific to the problem of flight. Since we figured it out, we're able to make machines that fly faster and higher than anything in nature. Vastly faster and higher.
Right now we're trying to build machines that think -- not just compute. We know that thinking is possible because we see brains doing it. Brains do it with neurons and synapses. We tried to make thinking machines out of neurons and synapses. They didn't think.
Brains are made of neurons because that's what evolution had available. Neurons are a lot like other cells in the body -- blood cells, skin cells, muscle cells. Evolution is good at specializing cells to do all kinds of jobs.
When we figure out how to make thinking machines, the solution will exploit the advantages of the technology of the day. It will look like something we already have, but tweaked. We're good with transistors and silicon. We're good at computer networks.
We definitely have missing pieces. We don't know much about the principles of intelligence. We understand logic, but how do you get intelligence from logic? And maybe we're still missing some key technology to make it work. (Memristors? Graphene?) And once we have the principles and the technology, it'll take some engineering to make it work, but we'll make it work. We'll building thinking machines that are vastly smarter, wiser, and more clever than nature ever did.
The point is that if we ever upload a brain, it will be like building a mechanical horse -- an over-engineered gimmick, a parlor trick. We'll already have done much better at AI by approaching the problem from a different direction.
It doesn't bode well for humanity though, in the long term. Just about the only jobs left are thinking jobs. What happens when it's a waste of time for a human to think, just like it's a waste of time for a horse to pull a plow? We didn't declare war on horses, Terminator-style. We just didn't keep very many around.