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Far less evidence than what?

Can you state exactly what your threat model is? As far as I can tell, it's:

* My hair happens to be at the scene of a crime I didn't commit

* The police force 23&me to tell them whose DNA it corresponds to (or the records have already leaked so the police just know)

* I also happen to have the same color and make of car that was seen leaving the seen

* Therefore, the prosecutor successfully tries and convicts me.

Being honest, what do you think is the probability of this sequence of events happening?



That last step doesn't need to happen to both:

* destroy your life

* let a real criminal get away

"in exchange for a few minutes of fun" is absolutely not worth enriching some dicks that don't care if I live, die, or get falsely accused.

All that notwithstanding, People plead guilty to crimes they didn't commit regularly because they are told it will make things easier on them. Or they avoid the death penalty.


Okay. I’ll ask again. What do you estimate is the probability of my life getting destroyed because of this or a similar sequence of events?


I seriously recommend anyone that they watch this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-7o9xYp7eE

The TLDR is that the actual real evidence doesn't matter - what matters is if the prosecution and the police are able to convince a jury that you did the crime. Watch at least the lawyer's section until the end(the cop's section is basically - "everything he said is true").


> The TLDR is that the actual real evidence doesn't matter - what matters is if the prosecution and the police are able to convince a jury that you did the crime.

Don’t you think there’s some correlation there though? Typically, the jury is convinced by telling them what evidence the state has. It’s like saying a laser rangefinder doesn’t actually measure distance but time. Ok, but one Leads to the other…


Have you seen the video?


Not recently, but also, I was responding to the TLDR.


What does this have to do with my point?


You asked:

"Can you state exactly what your threat model is?"

The threat model is that police and prosecutors need to find someone guilty. If you watch the video to the end, the lawyer explains exactly how even a genuienly completely innocent person might be convicted of a crime because they were able to use "some" evidence to show that you maybe were near the crime scene. They don't need definitive proof - they just need enough to sway the jury. And if you take that into consideration, then giving law enforcement any info about you can only ever work to your disadvantage.


> The threat model is that police and prosecutors need to find someone guilty.

Sure. And the chance that I'm the person they decide to pin it on because my DNA happened to be in a database is extremely low. Why are you only focusing on one of the bullet points when the point is that probabilities are multiplicative?


Well by that standard is not worth protecting your privacy at all, after all the probability of any of your data being used against you is extremely low. And it's a difficult point to argue, because obviously it's true - but still, why take the risk?

>>Why are you only focusing on one of the bullet points when the point is that probabilities are multiplicative?

Because I'm saying that all of your points don't need to be true for something bad to happen to you. The probability of all your points happening is probably so close to zero it might as well be zero. But if you've given the state any information it can be used against you - like the point made in the video shows. So I think what I'm saying is that yes, your points are improbable, but not all of them have to happen for you to get screwed over.


> Well by that standard is not worth protecting your privacy at all, after all the probability of any of your data being used against you is extremely low. And it's a difficult point to argue, because obviously it's true

Correct, this is exactly the point I'm making.

To recap: the point is that it is not necessarily the case that someone who sends their DNA to 23&Me is ignorant of the risks or stupid; it's entirely possible that they objectively analyzed the risks and decided it's not serious enough to care.

> but still, why take the risk?

For the same reason I walk outside without wearing a helmet to prevent me from bricks that could randomly fall from building facades. Mitigating the risk is not worth it, to me, relative to the hassle of doing so.


You miss the point that being in the frame for an extended period is, surely, incredibly stressful.

How long does it take to get to trial?

Do you think you could have that on your plate for months and suffer no negatives?

Do you prefer to find bail money, or sit in jail?




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