How much net real harm to humanity do you think global warming causes today? (If we ingnore psychological harm caused mostly by the scare tactics used to prevent it)
According to this article, total excess mortality from cold weather is still an order of magnitude higher than from hot weather:
As the world has been warming over the last decades, mortality from cold weather has been declining faster than the mortality from warm weather has increased.
This is from Europe, but prior studies have been conducted that produce the same results globally:
So my claim is that global warming is also in reality a non-issue right now, even though it could in theory become a big issue in about 100-200 years, if we don't do anything.
I think the reason why Global Warming gets so much attention right now, is partly that we have few other serious issues to worry about right now, and partly because some groups have chosen to put it on the agenda.
Few people alive today actually remember WW2, and even the Cold War and the Nuclear Scare is becoming a distant memory.
So my prediction is NOT that the real threat of Global Warming will necesarily go away, but rather that something (like AGI) will appear that makes it seem insignificant by comparison.
How much net real harm to humanity do you think global warming causes today? (If we ingnore psychological harm caused mostly by the scare tactics used to prevent it)
According to this article, total excess mortality from cold weather is still an order of magnitude higher than from hot weather:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5...
As the world has been warming over the last decades, mortality from cold weather has been declining faster than the mortality from warm weather has increased.
This is from Europe, but prior studies have been conducted that produce the same results globally:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
> more like it's a non-issue now
So my claim is that global warming is also in reality a non-issue right now, even though it could in theory become a big issue in about 100-200 years, if we don't do anything.
I think the reason why Global Warming gets so much attention right now, is partly that we have few other serious issues to worry about right now, and partly because some groups have chosen to put it on the agenda.
Few people alive today actually remember WW2, and even the Cold War and the Nuclear Scare is becoming a distant memory.
So my prediction is NOT that the real threat of Global Warming will necesarily go away, but rather that something (like AGI) will appear that makes it seem insignificant by comparison.