What's not really speculation? The new goal post you moved to, or the point I was originally contesting, before you retreated to an unrelated argument for which you could dump piles of (also unrelated) evidence?
You were claiming[1] that Tether isn't honoring redemptions, based on the fact that no one's screaming "Hey, look at me, I just got some USD back for my tethers, 1:1" -- even though people could also point to tether's failure to redeem, and even profit from advance knowledge of the imminent crypto collapse it would trigger.
Now, with no acknowledgement of what just happened, you're moving to this argument:
>>I don't personally think that it's impossible to redeem, I think they're almost guaranteed not to be good for all outstanding Tethers.
It looks like you have no aversion to making a baseless claim, and then firehosing evidence of a different one when called on it. I don't think that makes for a productive exchange of ideas.
I mean, if you really believed that Tether was honoring at least some redemptions[2], why would you casually make the argument that, gosh, we don't have reports of successful redemptions, they must not be doing any at all?
Sorry maybe I was just a little confused, I'm trying to do a few things at a time. Let me try and clarify. I'm approaching this from a good faith position.
> You were claiming[1] that Tether isn't honoring redemptions, based on the fact that no one's screaming "Hey, look at me, I just got some USD back for my tethers, 1:1" -- even though people could also point to tether's failure to redeem, and even profit from advance knowledge of the imminent crypto collapse it would trigger
I was trying to say they claim to (or have in the recent past claimed to) allow redemptions, but in reality, they don't honor all redemptions. They don't, because their terms of service say so. They don't honor redemptions to NY residents, any US persons, to anyone requesting less than $100K, etc. This is all on their tether.to/legal site. They've updated this wording many times.
I don't think in [1] I said they don't honor any redemptions.
Yes, nobody's screaming about it. I think once you exclude the above group (who sell at exchanges), then the remaining are either going to be taken care of out of a small pool of liquidity, or know not to ask for cash.
There's a ton we don't know. We don't know if Tethers are actually being issued in exchange for deposits. They could be issued to institutional players on faith, in which case a 'redemption' wouldn't be a cash withdrawal but instead they tear up the promisory note and return the USDT to the treasury. That seems within their capability.
I further maintain no big players but Trabucco and SBF have said 'they were good for our redemption requests' so I have no reason to believe they are, given their legal issues, questionable track record, and the suspicious folks in charge.
> I think they're almost guaranteed not to be good for all outstanding Tethers.
There's nothing baseless about this, they have a history as detailed by the CFTC and NYAG settlements. I have no reason to trust they're suddenly good for it. So I have no reason to believe they'd be good for all redemptions in the future.
If your argued in good faith, you wouldn't t need to constantly "clarify a position", and you wouldn't "get confused". You made a comment doubting that Tether was honoring redemptions at all -- directly contrary to the position you now hold.
That makes it a very unforced error. If you had come into the discussion in good faith, you wouldn't have to remember which ridiculous, over-the-top claim you made, in which subthread, and you wouldn't be addressing arguments someone never made (like about the NYAG stuff). You would have one model, one truth, and you could just argue from that.
Re-read [1] and the two levels above. Can you honestly imagine anyone going away from that believing (or believing it's your opinion) that Tether is regularly honoring withdrawals?
Even now, you don't look like you're arguing in good faith: your "proof" that Tether doesn't honor withdrawals is ... what? That their ToS has long said they don't honor certain types? Okay, but by that definition, Wal-mart isn't honoring gift cards either, simply because their ToS reserves the right not to in some cases (e.g. old card, belligerent customer). No one would seriously try to cite that has proof that no one has been buying goods with Wal-mart gift guards.
In a good discussion, the claim that Tether "isn't honoring withdrawals" would be that they aren't honoring ones that, on the face of it, meet their criteria. Using a few long-standing caveats as your "out" is dishonest.
> If your argued in good faith, you wouldn't t need to constantly "clarify a position", and you wouldn't "get confused". You made a comment doubting that Tether was honoring redemptions at all -- directly contrary to the position you now hold.
Don't be silly, you're just being argumentative and trying to read something into my replies that isn't there. You failed to get my point. That's on both of us. Pretty much end of story.
I'm sorry but I'm not going to continue this because you are not having a conversation in good faith. Enjoy your weekend.
You argued Tether wasn't honoring withdrawals, saying there was no evidence of it. I disputed that claim as being over-the-top. That wasn't "being argumentative", that was calling out an obviously wrong claim, and then you trying to pretend I was disputing a different claim that you're better prepared to defend.
If you don't want people to dispute that "Tether hasn't honored withdrawals", then don't make that argument!
Good faith = honest attempt to reply to what someone actually said, not changing the topic, not talking about weekends.
Where, specifically, did you think I broke that?
I strongly encourage you to re-read what you wrote in [1] again and see if you can find any reasonable interpretation whereby someone would think you were saying Tether was regularly honoring redemption (as you now claim you meant after being called out). It just isn't there.
It doesn't matter that your general conclusions about Tether might be correct. "Good faith" means not saying things like, "They claim to [have redeemed USDT for USD] but nobody has posted proof that they got their money."
If you want to have a good-faith discussion you can't just recklessly spray negative remarks about the villain. You have to stick to things you actually believe -- or at least, recognize when you were out of line and acknowledge the moved goal posts. It's really not a big ask.
What's not really speculation? The new goal post you moved to, or the point I was originally contesting, before you retreated to an unrelated argument for which you could dump piles of (also unrelated) evidence?
You were claiming[1] that Tether isn't honoring redemptions, based on the fact that no one's screaming "Hey, look at me, I just got some USD back for my tethers, 1:1" -- even though people could also point to tether's failure to redeem, and even profit from advance knowledge of the imminent crypto collapse it would trigger.
Now, with no acknowledgement of what just happened, you're moving to this argument:
>>I don't personally think that it's impossible to redeem, I think they're almost guaranteed not to be good for all outstanding Tethers.
It looks like you have no aversion to making a baseless claim, and then firehosing evidence of a different one when called on it. I don't think that makes for a productive exchange of ideas.
I mean, if you really believed that Tether was honoring at least some redemptions[2], why would you casually make the argument that, gosh, we don't have reports of successful redemptions, they must not be doing any at all?
>I'm not sure BFX actually arbs the peg,
Yep, another point I never made.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34635720
[2] >> I think they keep some small pool of liquidity to satisfy certain key partners,