I would rate the chances of an Indian (or Pakistani, or Bangladeshi) national being able to evade capture domestically in their home country in south asia as quite high.
In either country you can exist entirely in a cash-based economy with no digital records of your actual identity linked to any transactions or accounts if you put a bit of effort and thought into it.
Unless the fugitive was high enough profile that it would cause the US to really put pressure on the relevant local government to search out and capture them.
"cash-based economy with no digital records of your actual identity linked to any transactions or accounts"
Not that easy in India anymore for last few years with thinks like Aadhar/PAN card and almost every bank requiring those. Even small time vendors prefer payment using phone apps these days in India.
If someone had cooperative family members that could withdraw cash banknotes from their own accounts it would definitely be a lot easier.
have also seen a large number of reports of how easy it is to get a fraudulent aadhar card under a fake name, using fabricated paper documents as origins of identity, so that's a possible route
I think the likelihood of this working would also be much higher if someone relocated to a very rural location where the local economy is much more cash based. (eg: if you're from manipur, go find a medium sized town in the hills and don't draw any attention to yourself)
