Much of the US media is captured, so virtually nothing is fed back to us Americans. This also builds on top of US gunboat diplomacy going all the way back to the Monroe Doctrine. Keeping Americans ignorant allows our government and corporations a free hand in foreign affairs. The limited information allowed through is heavily sanitized and depicts US actions as the Good Guys attacked by the Evil X, which is why so many of our wars start with a ship "under attack" (USS Maine, RMS Lusitania, Gulf of Tonkin incident), or supposed WMDs (Iran, Iraq)
A great example is the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor. Ask any American and they can call up all kinds of minute details about the attack. However if you ask them about the US trade embargoes and blockades against Japan in the months leading up to the attack, the vast majority of Americans will draw a blank. That is on purpose.
When stuff does break through to us, raw and unfiltered, most will react with horror. The self image of Americans as the Good Guys cracks. This happened in the Viet-Nam conflict when journalists had a free hand to show what was happening. Massive protests and a near mutiny by the US Army caused the Pentagon to get far more involved in how wars are presented in future conflicts. More recently Americans were so horrified when they witnessed the Israeli genocide after October 7th that it completely inverted both public sentiment and support for Israel, causing the forced sale of TikTok to Oracle and under US control to clamp down on the coverage.
I find it hard to look at the actions of the Japanese and the Americans in the late 1930s and come away with any other impression than that the Americans were the good guys.
I'm not saying Japan was good, and this isn't a callout to you. I'm arguing that the erasure of US brutality in China and the Philippines, as well as Gunboat Diplomacy on Japan itself, is why we can see ourselves as the Good Guys. This erasure is part of Manufacturing Consent. Its better to abandon the temptation to moralize the sides in war and see it as Great Power competition.
First we have US [Commodore Perry] who, in 1854, used gunboat diplomacy in Nagasaki harbor to end Japan's isolation and open it up for trade. This would snowball into the Meiji restoration, which ended the Shogunate, and an Emperor that rapidly modernized Japan's economy and military to prevent foreign domination that China was experiencing at that time.
Three decades prior to Japan's invasion of China, and a decade before Japan seized Korea, the United States and other Great Powers were suppressing the Boxer Rebellion as part of China's [Century of Humiliation] to exploit China for themselves. In addition the US, after it seized the Philippines from Spain, spent several years brutally putting down the native independence movent [p-h war]. Americans aren't taught this history, and fear of that brutality of American reprisals influenced the Japanese against surrendering during WW2.
Speaking of the Philippines, its seizure by the US and other Spanish territories after the Spanish-American war as well as the annexation of Hawaii alarmed Japan. They saw US and other imperial powers as rapidly encroaching on Japanese sphere of influence, in particular the decades of 1890s-1900s. Japan saw all of this and didn't want to be the next China. Japan also saw all of East Asia was it's sphere of influence as a Japanese mirror of the Monroe Doctrine and the western imperial powers as both a tacit threat and competition.
The US wasn't interested in helping China against Japan out of a moral duty, but protecting US interests against a rising Japanese Empire, in addition to British, French, and Dutch colonies in the Far East. The tipping point for Japan was when the US embargoed Oil and ship-grade Steel (as well as other strategic commodities and economic sanctions) from Japan throughout 1941, which led to Japan planning to seize more territory in SE Asia. To support these annexations, Japan had to push the US out of the Philippines, and to do that they attacked Pearl Harbor as a way to buy Japan time to take and hold territory before Americans could respond.
I mention all of this because Americans aren't taught this yet so much of our history hinges on these events.
The elephant in the room is 'unverified' users will overwhelmingly be underage kids, and that absence will be tracked across the internet. This whole thing inadvertently exposes who are the kids vs the adults programmatically.
Second, if all it takes to get into underage spaces is not being verified, predators *will* notice and exploit this hole.
Even the absence of information is information.
> The Roblox games site, which recently launched a new age-estimate system, is already suffering from users selling child-aged accounts to adult predators seeking entry to age-restricted areas, Wired reports.
> Second, if all it takes to get into underage spaces is not being verified, predators *will* notice and exploit this hole.
Well the default state is "assume underage". So the default state is be in same location as children. There's nothing for predators to exploit, they get access by default.
Which once people realize that, it all becomes really silly. The only way it would really work is by verifying that people are children, so only children can be in the gated location. But then you need to do mass surveillance on children and I think even the average person realizes this just makes that a great place for predators and the damage caused by a leak is far greater to children. Not to mention the impractical nature of it as children are less likely to able to verify themselves and honestly, you expect kids to jump through extra hoops?
Anyone that believes these systems will keep predators away from children haven't thought about even the most basic aspects of how these systems work. They cannot do what they promise
I guess I'm earning my grey hairs in my beard, because everything old is new again. Today AI/outsourcing is Offshoring 2.0.
In the post-2000 bubble crash companies rushed to outsource their IT for cheap. From about 2001 to 2004, similar to the AI bubble today, companies [laid off] their current staff and [pushed offshore]. After 2004 on the cracks appeared when the code and services resulted in [poor quality], but companies had to pay again to get fixes from their offshore teams, just like AI agents now. This led to a [reversal] by mid-2000s, but by then the CS and IT graduate pipeline had [collapsed].
> Just four or five years ago, around 220 students were shopping CS 15: "Introduction to Object-Oriented Programming and Computer Science" at the beginning of the year, and this fall, only about 100 students shopped the course. "It's been going down every year for the past four years and this year, I think there are close to 60 students in the course, and I haven't had that few since the '60s," said Professor of Computer Sciences and Vice President for Research Andries van Dam, who teaches CS 15. [brown]
I observed the 2000 Dot-Bomb, the mid-2000s offshoring, and the 2008 financial crisis all left a major crater in the CS profession, leading to the furious competition for talent in the 2010s.
I sync the database to my phone, and a couple of other devices too with syncthing. I need it on my phone anyway to log into accounts while I'm out and about.
What clients are you using ? Trying syncthing with synctrayzor with my windows boxes and Synctrain on my iPhone and it’s mostly alright but still a little spotty.
I'm also using Synctrayzor on my Windows 10 machine. I'm on Android using the official Syncthing app there as well as on Linux. It sometimes takes a while for them to discover each other, and it of course works better when all the devices are on my home network. The only real problem I've encountered is when filenames have special characters another OS doesn't like.
Hey thanks for the quick reply! Yeah, I've noticed the discoverability is a lot more consistent when I just foreground the app on both devices and let it sit for 10-15 seconds. So used to instant gratification in this age :\
Not the parent, but a heavy user of Keepass. When you unlock your database, you can re-key it with several options for encryption algorithm, key derivation, and the transform rounds. I also have it set up with my Yubikeys as a kinda-sorta two factor for an added layer of security.
To keep the encryption modern regular updates are made to the program, and any migration would happen when re-encrypting the database. Checking my earliest entry, I've used it for 15 years without a hiccup.
Doom, Duke Nukem 3D, and Dark Forces are my triumvirate of that era. Of all of them, Duke Nukem felt the most interactive. There are times I would clear a level of enemies, then play with all the gizmos the level designers put inside like the jail cell block doors of Death Row. The security cameras were so advanced at the time too! They rendered their view, in real time, on a wall TV. I wouldn't see that effect again until the 2000s. The levels felt intuitive too, at least the Earth levels, that I felt like an urban explorer in a way that Deus Ex would later capture.
I find it a bit ironic that this site regularly talks about banning whole countries and IP ranges on our servers, then acts shocked when users do the same. The fact that somebody went to the effort to create and share this shows how poorly the public sees the web.
The reality we face is "Check your AdBlocker" is the new "Check your spam folder" and we should adjust accordingly.
I visited Munich back in 2013 and recorded several surfers on the wave [0]. For reference I was standing on the bridge just above the platform in the article's second photo. It was pretty neat, and I'm sad that it might be lost.
From an email for a company ( https://desertcontrol.com ) that specializes in reducing irrigation needs and fertilizing especially sandy soil with silt and LNC Liquid Natural Clay :
- [Instream River Training],
- Microgroins,
- Control the river from the middle of it, not with the banks,
- Hyperbolic funnels aerate,
- Vacuum kills bacteria,
- Chemical free water treatment,
- Oxygenating or aerating water makes it more fertilizing
I have a use case just for this. Sometimes my internet goes down while I'm working on my desktop computer. I'll put my work in a branch and push it to my laptop, then go to a coffee shop to continue my work.
The Drake Equation is filled with assumptions, like life must appear on a planet in the Goldilocks zone of a star. The whole equation has only one datapoint to extrapolate from. Tweak the equation's parameters and it will predict universes that only have one civilization per galaxy or worse! We have no way of knowing what those parameters are because we haven't seen other examples.
A major reason we are interested in Europa is because it might have underground oceans. Hypothetically, through tidal forces with Jupiter, the moon's core is hot enough to create oceans under the ice crust. Combined with hydrothermal vents you have the possibility for deep sea life similar to our own deep oceans. The Drake Equation does not predict this possibility.
The equation itself makes no assumptions. But anyone trying to calculate something with it must.
The last five factors in the equation will be filled in by assumptions based entirely on one data point, life on Earth. From your link:
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets.
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point.
fi = the fraction of planets with life that go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations).
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space.
Can you define any one of those without assumptions, in a scientifically proven way?
One approach is to give each variable a probability distribution. The greater our uncertainty about possible values, the wider the bell curve.
Drexler and colleagues did that, and found "a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable."
A probability distribution describes how likely different outcomes are.
It requires multiple observations or an assumed model that can represent variability.
Which is why they set very wide ranges on the things we know little about. Doing that is less unjustified than guessing specific values, as people have usually done.
It's nowhere near a precise estimate of the probability of life. What it mainly shows is that the Fermi "paradox" is no such thing. It can look that way if we guess specific parameter values, but if we fully account for our uncertainty on the various parameters, then the result is a decent chance that we are alone, given the knowledge we have so far.
I’m not saying precise. I’m saying it isn’t even an estimate.
You can’t have a distribution with one data point.
It’s similar to the arguments about 3I/Atlas being an alien spacecraft because it’s so ‘weird’.
With so few data points, everything is fundamentally ‘weird’ - or normal - we have no way to tell, so making any sort of statistical argument about it is fundamentally useless and misleading, as statistics is based on groups. And we don’t have a group yet.
We know a lot more than the simple fact that civilization exists on our planet. See section 3 for how they estimated the parameters.
One of the most uncertain parameters is the rate of abiogenesis events per planet. For that one they used a log-normal with a standard deviation of 50 orders of magnitude. They discuss specific theoretical limits from biology for both ends of the range.
Compared to this approach, the usual method is to just pick particular values out of a hat. This paper at least improves that by directly representing our vast uncertainty for some of the values.
It doesn't tell us how many alien civilizations there are. But it does tell us the range of possibilities, given what we know and don't know.
If your level of uncertainty is infinite then you're suggesting that abiogenesis could be happening every day in your back yard. I think you might admit we're a little more certain than that.
Life, once established, is about competition for niche resources. Established life would kick the polypeptides out of a protocell quite easily (with certainty > 99%).
Protocells could be evolving right now at vents in the ocean, with zero of them managing to escape their birthplace due to being outcompeted by things with fully developed organelles.
Fine, let me put it another way. Fill a test tube with simple chemical building blocks of life. Sterilize everything. If our uncertainty is infinite then we aren't willing to say whether metabolizing, reproducing life arises from scratch within five minutes every time we do it.
If you're willing to concede that in fact, that doesn't happen, then you're putting a limit on that parameter, just like the paper did.
It does assume that life must be associatable with a planet. It's a plausible assumption, but you could also hypothetically have life develop on a star itself or its remnants, comets, clouds of interstellar gas. Maybe even something more exotic than that (dark matter? some weird correlated statistical properties of the quantum foam?)
About forty years ago I read a terrific book about life forms that live on a star. Maybe Starquake was it called? Did to the abundance of energy on the surface of a star, they live their lives a million times faster than humans. Thus for both them and the humans who discover them, communication is difficult. I think the humans push these life forms to develop civilization, which from the human's perspective had them go from primitive animals into sophisticated beings of technology past their own in something like a day.
The cheela lived on the surface of a neutron star, and they lived faster because the nuclear physics that powered their metabolism are far faster than the chemical and mechanical physics that power our own.
I'm not against piracy, and I love Anna's Archive... but publicly linking directly to a pirate source for something like this seems wrong. Could've just linked the Wikipedia page and let people acquire however they prefer.
Anyway, sounds interesting, gunna add that to my list
Well I don't really have a line, but that doesn't mean I'm going to go linking directly to such sources in public - not everyone agrees with my stance on copyright. Those who do can easily go find it themselves.
Also Macbeth was written 400 years ago. Let's not pretend this is a fair comparison. This author has been dead only 20 years - it might be that their partner is still alive and needs that money, or their children.
What a strange way to phrase it, considering in your last comment you were talking about how copyright expiry is exactly for this purpose.
Anyway, what is copyright expiration in America these days? 100 years?
Also, is it simply a matter of X years after creation? I somehow doubt it's that simple anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if "copyright is extended indefinitely if the work is being actively commercially used" or some such
Which is saner eh! That way people living at the time who are protecting it (copyright and patents are both protections for things otherwise being distributed and which could be copied easily) can benefit from it eventually.
My initial reaction was the same, then I thought: "no, we need more of this".
We need more discussion about copyright in our society, and we need it most in front of those who are unaware, inattentive, or would otherwise shirk that discussion. Posting a relevant link in a relevant discussion appears as good an avenue as any to get people talking.
Promoting copyright infringement in order to initiate a conversation about copyright is about as moral as murdering civilians to initiate a conversation about human rights.
I was bothered by the nearly a-scientific-ness of PHM. The story was nicely done in general, but it feels like he pretends to be hard science fiction when he's really Star Trek-level.
How many planets are there, and what proportion of them have detectable life?
The f does not have to be structured as fl->fi->fc, although we can see why you'd assume that kind of structure. It's simple to calculate the PI(series) when the model is just a funnel. Like the Million Dollar Money Drop gameshow.
But you could imagine a more complex model of probabilities that branches and merges. There could be events on the bayesian tree that amplify downstream events. For instance, suppose there is some pathway that if reached will leave certain minerals that future civilizations could use. This has happened already on earth at least once: lignin bearing plants could not be easily digested for a long time, and that led to coal formation during the carboniferous period.
You could imagine many such potential trees, but we only have one iteration.
Thanks, I read that part before I shared it. It's pretty clear to me, these are pretty well defined quantities, just hard to measure. What is unclear is perhaps the definition of life. But at no point does it assume a planet must be in the Goldilocks zone. So perhaps you want to point out those assumptions you are talking about to me, because I don't see them.
Edit: the parent post has been edited substantially after I replied.
> these are pretty well defined quantities, just hard to measure.
They are "defined" conceptually, in words, not in physical quantities. It assumes we can assign a known value to any of that when we don't and likely never will. It's like saying "Let X answer the unanswerable question. X is the answer".
> at no point does it assume a planet must be in the Goldilocks zone
You could say it implies it with fl.
> Edit: the parent post has been edited substantially after I replied.
I can't, but the equation itself doesn't to that. The assumptions are up to the reader to make. That's why I think that the equation isn't particularly useful.
That's just your interpretation. Take the equation at its face value and it does allow for life originating around some deep sea vents, like JamesLeonis speculated.
Yes, but we should consider these linkages when setting values. If we assume that volcanic vent life is very unlikely to become spacefaring, we should either leave it out of the "life" term, or leave it in but lower the probability of the "becomes spacefaring" term.
It goes the other way around. The Goldilocks zone is a shorthand attempt at helping us guess how many planets out there are capable of supporting life.
Even if you only had a handful of civilizations, the sheer time that has passed and size of the universe should mean that life should still be alot more apparent.
With sublight velocities achievable today, I recall it would only take around a million years for a Von Newmann probe to cover the entire galaxy. Such a probe is quite conceivable, so why isn't there more evidence of such probes everywhere?
Another point I feel is that proliferation of life should be an self-reinforcing affair, for intelligent life even more so. A spacefaring nation may terraform or just seed planets, and these in time will replicate similar behaviors. At a certain point, a galaxy teeming with life should be very hard to reverse given all the activity. A life itself isn't necessarily evolved from biology, AI machine lifeforms should also well suited to proliferate, yet we don't see them anyways.
> With sublight velocities achievable today, I recall it would only take around a million years for a Von Newmann probe to cover the entire galaxy. Such a probe is quite conceivable, so why isn't there more evidence of such probes everywhere?
What are the incentives to build and deploy such a thing though? We as a civilization fail to fund things that have a ROI of more than a few years, how are you going to fund something that pays off after a million year?
Exactly. Some of the biggest explanatory factors for the Fermi paradox are likely to be economics and politics: interstellar travel is unreasonably expensive, unimaginably slow, and has negative ROI unless your time horizons are beyond anything that's ever been used on Earth.
Consider that in some countries on Earth, we can't even get consensus that obtaining energy directly from the Sun via solar panels is a good idea.
Also, people vastly underestimate how hostile space is: colonizing Mount Everest, the Antarctic or the continental plateau under sea would be far easier than colonizing Mars. And Mars is the most hospitable extraterrestrial place we know of.
I don't think we would colonizing Mars, free floating colonies akin to O'Neil Cylinders orbiting Earth would probably be the more logical option. And with increasing robotic automation capabilities, it's not improbable to see these being built in the future.
"Extremely improbable" would be a better assessment.
Even ignoring the project complexity, difficulty, and energy budget, which can't simply be handwaved away by "robotic automation", one reason is simply that such colonies don't solve any problem that we're likely to have, that can't be solved much more cheaply, safely, and effectively.
But even the idea that we'll eventually have the technology to build such structures is debatable. Will this be before or after we solve climate change, for example? Because that issue is likely to severely impact our technological capabilities over the timescales involved. And as of today, the most technologically advanced nation is doubling down on atmospheric carbon production.
Having the technology to build it isn't the hard part. The question is why you'd do that in the first place and who would fund such a colony.
First of all it's going to be massively more expensive than any housing we've ever built on earth so only a very small elite could afford living there.
But then again, space is a very hostile environment: it's super dangerous (any incident will almost certainly snowball into a dramatic accident), very unhealthy (billionaires are currently funding longevity research, so I don't think they'd like to go in a place where they would age up significantly faster than on earth…), and life is just worse up there on all respect…
At some point replicative drift will set in. How many replications is two million years? How long before the probes evolve? How long before they speciate? How long before a species turns on itself?
> Such a probe is quite conceivable, so why isn't there more evidence of such probes everywhere?
Time, not space, is your answer here.
Two reasons -
(1) civilizations might not survive long enough to do this.
(2) 13 billion years is a long time. So you have the reciprocal of that as the chances to be in the right year to see such a probe. And with results from the new telescope we now have hints that the 13 billion number is bogus, the universe is likely far older.
The fundamental problem with the Drake equation is that it's frequentist, not Bayesian
Hence why you get too high sensitivity to parameters you have no way of having an estimate with a small margin of error
We "don't care" about how many civilisations are out there, we care to the point where we can interact with them.
As mentioned, it has several assumptions. "Rate of birth of sun like stars" means nothing. You can "always" have an exception for life that will throw the data off: "star too bright but with a hot Jupiter tidally locked in front of your moon, shielding it" etc
FYI just about every outer solar system moon or planetoid has a liquid ocean somewhere underneath. Europa is neither exceptional or even that interesting anymore.
Much of the US media is captured, so virtually nothing is fed back to us Americans. This also builds on top of US gunboat diplomacy going all the way back to the Monroe Doctrine. Keeping Americans ignorant allows our government and corporations a free hand in foreign affairs. The limited information allowed through is heavily sanitized and depicts US actions as the Good Guys attacked by the Evil X, which is why so many of our wars start with a ship "under attack" (USS Maine, RMS Lusitania, Gulf of Tonkin incident), or supposed WMDs (Iran, Iraq)
A great example is the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor. Ask any American and they can call up all kinds of minute details about the attack. However if you ask them about the US trade embargoes and blockades against Japan in the months leading up to the attack, the vast majority of Americans will draw a blank. That is on purpose.
When stuff does break through to us, raw and unfiltered, most will react with horror. The self image of Americans as the Good Guys cracks. This happened in the Viet-Nam conflict when journalists had a free hand to show what was happening. Massive protests and a near mutiny by the US Army caused the Pentagon to get far more involved in how wars are presented in future conflicts. More recently Americans were so horrified when they witnessed the Israeli genocide after October 7th that it completely inverted both public sentiment and support for Israel, causing the forced sale of TikTok to Oracle and under US control to clamp down on the coverage.
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